Oregon Stories

12/8/2024
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11/29/2024
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FPI: Oregon Ducks No Longer B10 Favorite

TLDR: With three weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the Oregon Ducks are in strong contention for the Big Ten Conference championship, as well as a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have maintained an undefeated record and hold the No. 1 national ranking for the fourth consecutive week. However, ESPN’s Football Power Index places them behind the Ohio State Buckeyes regarding conference championship odds. Despite some skepticism about their ability to secure the conference title in their first Big Ten season, the Ducks have impressive odds across several FPI metrics. According to the FPI, Oregon has a 75.6% chance to win in their upcoming game against the Wisconsin Badgers and an 89.3% chance to achieve victory over the Washington Huskies. Overall, the Ducks possess a 26.8% likelihood of winning the remainder of their games, with a 95.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Their chance to advance to the national championship sits at 19.3%, and they have a 7.8% probability of clinching the championship title. The outcome of the Ducks’ season will depend heavily on their performances in the closing games and the highly anticipated showdown between Ohio State and Indiana, which could deteremine the conference title contender for the championship in Indianapolis.


As the college football season narrows down to its final weeks, the Oregon Ducks find themselves amidst a heated chase for the Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth. Holding an unblemished record, Oregon stands as one of the top contenders, maintaining its position as the nation’s No. 1 ranked team for the fourth week in succession. Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced that the Ducks will emerge as conference champions in their inaugural season within the Big Ten. The upcoming games are crucial, and their outcomes will significantly shape Oregon’s path forward.

The latest calculations from ESPN’s Football Power Index present a revealing picture of what lies ahead for the Oregon Ducks. Despite remaining undefeated, the FPI subtly hints that the Ducks’ strongest rival for the conference title is the Ohio State Buckeyes. No team has cemented its place in the conference championship match thus far, with the Ohio State vs. Indiana clash in Week 13 projected as a pivotal deciding factor for the title race.

For those unfamiliar with how ESPN’s FPI functions, it takes into account historical performances on both sides of the ball, as well as insights from recruiting classes. By evaluating past results along with insights into player talent, the FPI delivers judgments on team strengths, schedule toughness, and likelihood of winning specific match-ups. For Oregon, the FPI predicts a victorious outcome in their clash against the Wisconsin Badgers, giving them a 75.6% chance to triumph, and an even more optimistic 89.3% chance against the Washington Huskies.

Looking at Oregon’s overall outlook, the Ducks hold a 26.8% probability of securing wins in all remaining regular season games. Furthermore, their shot at placing in the prestigious College Football Playoff has soared to 95.3%. As the battle for national recognition continues, the Ducks possess a 19.3% chance to reach the championship game, although their odds of hoisting the championship trophy are at 7.8%. Oregon’s performance in upcoming weeks, especially in the face of formidable competitors, will ultimately determine if they can claim glory in Indianapolis.


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Authored by Monika Delainey

Monika Delainey

Monika Delainey, a passionate writer with deep roots in the lush landscapes of Oregon, vividly captures the essence of the Pacific Northwest in her writing. Drawing inspiration from a childhood steeped in the thrills of football and the boundless beauty of the outdoors, she aspires to leave an indelible mark on the literary world.